Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1614 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 1614 · LAX → GEG

departs 7:45 PM PT · arrives 10:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GEG?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↑ 7pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GEG (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1614 · LAX → GEG

Odds over time

How late will it get to GEG?