Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 1809 · PDX → DEN

departs 2:30 PM PT · arrives 6:09 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1809 · PDX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?