Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 1809 · PDX → DEN

departs 2:30 PM PT · arrives 6:09 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1809 · PDX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?