Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 258 IN THE AIR (OFF 3:50 PM PT, ETA 6:28 PM HT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 258 · SEA → LIH

took off 3:50 PM PT · expected to land 6:28 PM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LIH that day

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into LIH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

LIH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 258 · SEA → LIH

Odds over time