Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 285 LANDED 12:47 PM PT, ~22 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AS 285 · FAI → SEA

took off 8:34 AM AKT · landed 12:47 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at FAI that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from FAI are usually not late

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.10 in

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 285 · FAI → SEA

Odds over time