Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 307 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 307 · SEA → MKE

departs 6:09 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into MKE at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MKE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

MKE (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 307 · SEA → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?