AS 366 · LAS → PAE

departs 4:44 PM PT · arrives 7:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±6 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PAE?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.19 in

PAE (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 366 · LAS → PAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PAE?