Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 366 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow

AS 366 · LAS → PAE

departs 7:50 PM PT · arrives 10:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PAE?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PAE (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 366 · LAS → PAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PAE?