Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 405 IN THE AIR (OFF 3:42 PM CT, ETA 4:56 PM PT)

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 405 · OKC → SEA

took off 3:42 PM CT · expected to land 4:56 PM PT (scheduled 2:55 PM CT → 4:53 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at OKC

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

Weather at each end

OKC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 405 · OKC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?