Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 405SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 405 · OKC → SEA
departs 2:55 PM CT · arrives 4:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
22%chance · ±6 pts−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.