Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 451 LANDED 9:26 PM PT, ~21 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 451 · CVG → SEA

took off 8:02 PM ET · landed 9:26 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 451 · CVG → SEA

Odds over time