Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 477 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 477 · SEA → EWR

departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 6:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at EWR that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

EWR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 477 · SEA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?