Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 485 LANDED 8:08 PM CT, ~21 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 485 · SEA → DFW

took off 2:44 PM PT · landed 8:08 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 485 · SEA → DFW

Odds over time