Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 497 LANDED 11:48 PM CT, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 497 · SEA → MCI

took off 7:00 PM PT · landed 11:48 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

MCI (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 497 · SEA → MCI

Odds over time