AS 49 · ANC → HNL

took off 4:27 PM AKT · landed 8:12 PM HT (scheduled 4:00 PM AKT → 8:05 PM HT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to HNL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ANC

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 49 · ANC → HNL

Odds over time

How late did it get to HNL?