Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 502 LANDED 5:49 PM CT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 502 · SEA → AUS

took off 12:17 PM PT · landed 5:49 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at AUS that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 502 · SEA → AUS

Odds over time