tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 509 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Today

AS 509 · SEA → MSP

departs 11:51 AM PT · arrives 5:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
41% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 2.8d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to MSP?

  1. On time or early
    58%
  2. 15–30 min late
    19%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    12%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    7%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    3%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.