Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 515 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 515 · PAE → PHX

departs 2:52 PM PT · arrives 5:50 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PAE that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ 2pm departures from PAE are usually not late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PAE (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.28 in

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 515 · PAE → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?