Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 518 LANDED 1:26 PM HT, ~6 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 518 · SEA → KOA

took off 10:53 AM PT · landed 1:26 PM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

KOA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 518 · SEA → KOA

Odds over time