Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 527 LANDED 12:26 AM CT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 527 · SEA → MSP

took off 7:50 PM PT · landed 12:26 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

MSP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 527 · SEA → MSP

Odds over time