Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 556 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 556 · SEA → OMA

departs 6:47 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

OMA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 556 · SEA → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?