Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 569 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:45 PM CT, ETA 8:01 PM PT)

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 569 · MSY → SEA

took off 5:45 PM CT · expected to land 8:01 PM PT (scheduled 5:19 PM CT → 8:25 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 569 · MSY → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?