AS 579 · ORD → SEA

took off 1:26 PM CT · landed 3:26 PM PT (scheduled 1:01 PM CT → 3:42 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SEA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 579 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SEA?