Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 626 IN THE AIR (OFF 11:14 AM PT, ETA 1:41 PM HT)

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 626 · SEA → HNL

took off 11:14 AM PT · expected to land 1:41 PM HT (scheduled 10:55 AM PT → 2:04 PM HT)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

HNL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 626 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?