Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 630 IN THE AIR (OFF 3:39 PM PT, ETA 5:14 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 630 · SFO → SEA

took off 3:39 PM PT · expected to land 5:14 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 52% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 630 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time