Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 630 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 630 · SFO → SEA

departs 12:27 PM PT · arrives 2:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 59% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 630 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?