Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 633 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 633 · SEA → SIT

departs 11:35 AM PT · arrives 1:10 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SIT more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SIT?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at SIT that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ SIT is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

SIT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 633 · SEA → SIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SIT?