Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 633 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AS 633 · SEA → SIT

departs 11:35 AM PT · arrives 1:10 PM AKDT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SIT more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SIT?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at SIT that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SIT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 633 · SEA → SIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SIT?