Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 644 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 644 · SEA → PHX

departs 8:50 PM PT · arrives 11:49 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 644 · SEA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?