AS 648 · SEA → TUS

took off 11:54 AM PT · landed 2:31 PM MT (scheduled 10:19 AM PT → 1:31 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TUS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUS that day

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into TUS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

TUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 648 · SEA → TUS

Odds over time

How late did it get to TUS?