Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 715 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 715 · MSP → PDX

departs 7:43 PM CT · arrives 8:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 767 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling767 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.43 in

PDX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 715 · MSP → PDX

Odds over time