Schedule: FAA flight plans.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 788 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 788 · LIH → SFO

took off 7:49 PM HT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 3:43 PM HT → 11:56 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LIH that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.19 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 788 · LIH → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?