AS 812 · HNL → SFO

took off 12:27 PM HT · landed 8:02 PM PT (scheduled 12:20 PM HT → 8:28 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 812 · HNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?