Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9289 LANDED 2:21 AM HT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AS 9289 · SMF → HNL

took off 12:30 AM PT · landed 2:21 AM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 18h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9289 · SMF → HNL

Odds over time