Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 816
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
B6 816 · SFO → JFK
departs 11:50 PM PT · arrives 8:33 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 25%
Thu 10/1 22%
Sun 10/4 29%
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
11pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.