DL 1035 · JAX → JFK

took off 5:53 PM ET · expected to land 7:38 PM ET (scheduled 5:50 PM ET → 8:27 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1035 · JAX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?