DL 1035 · JAX → JFK

departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 8:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1035 · JAX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?