Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1476 LANDED 6:17 PM ET, ~33 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

DL 1476 · MSP → DTW

took off 4:07 PM CT · landed 6:17 PM ET (scheduled 4:15 PM CT → 6:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DTW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.54 in

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1476 · MSP → DTW

Odds over time

How late did it get to DTW?