Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
DL 1856 · SNA → DTW
departs 11:40 AM PT · arrives 7:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.