Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1856 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

DL 1856 · SNA → DTW

departs 11:40 AM PT · arrives 7:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1856 · SNA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?