Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
DL 1856 · SNA → DTW
departs 11:40 AM PT · arrives 7:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 27%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at SNA that day
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.