Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1856
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
DL 1856 · SNA → DTW
departs 11:40 AM PT · arrives 7:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 49%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DTW that day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,240 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.