DL 2121 · SAN → MSP

took off 12:23 PM PT · landed 5:15 PM CT (scheduled 11:48 AM PT → 5:40 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MSP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 667 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from SAN are often late

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling667 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.66 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2121 · SAN → MSP

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSP?