Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2145 LANDED 8:25 PM PT, ~5 MIN EARLY

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

DL 2145 · MSP → SAN

took off 6:59 PM CT · landed 8:25 PM PT (scheduled 6:50 PM CT → 8:35 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ 6pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.54 in

SAN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2145 · MSP → SAN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAN?