Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2789
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
DL 2789 · SFO → MSP
departs 12:35 AM PT · arrives 6:09 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 18h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Mon 10/5 6%
Thu 10/8 6%
Fri 10/9 6%
Sat 10/10 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↑
Other factors
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.