Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3148
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
DL 3148 · DTW → ROC
departs 9:30 PM ET · arrives 10:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 26%
Thu 10/1 42%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↑
9pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 8.8 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.