DL 359 · HNL → SEA

took off 1:38 PM HT · expected to land 9:47 PM PT (scheduled 1:07 PM HT → 10:05 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 359 · HNL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?