DL 574 · MSP → SMF

departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 8:35 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 667 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ 6pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling667 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.66 in

SMF (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 574 · MSP → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?