Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 863 IN THE AIR (OFF 7:05 PM ET, ETA 9:18 PM MT)

Tuesday, September 29 Today

DL 863 · JFK → SLC

took off 7:05 PM ET · expected to land 9:18 PM MT (scheduled 6:00 PM ET → 9:39 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SLC?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SLC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 863 · JFK → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?