DL 949 · SEA → MSP

took off 6:30 PM PT · landed 11:14 PM CT (scheduled 6:05 PM PT → 11:30 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MSP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

MSP (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 949 · SEA → MSP

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSP?